Guatemala v Suriname prediction

What to expect

Guatemala host Suriname in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 6 October. Guatemala sit third of six with four points from three games and a +5 goal difference. They sit one place above Honduras, who are a point behind, and one place below Jamaica, who sit two points ahead. Suriname sit top of the same group with seven points and a +2 goal difference, just a point clear of Jamaica. Both teams are only a few points away from the top spot, so a win or at least a point could tighten the race for the group leaders.

Guatemala’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three outings they drew 0-0 away to Suriname, thrashed El Salvador 6-0 at home and then lost 3-2 away to Jamaica. Across those games they have scored eight goals while conceding three. They kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net only once. Two of the three matches produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in the 3-2 loss to Jamaica. The side played just four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

Suriname come into the game unbeaten in their last three fixtures. They began with a 0-0 home draw against Guatemala, then beat Martinique 2-1 at home and secured a 3-2 away win over Honduras. In those three games they have scored five goals and let in three. They kept one clean sheet and were held scoreless in the draw with Guatemala. Two of the three matches featured three or more goals, and both teams scored in both the win over Honduras and the win over Martinique. Like Guatemala, Suriname also played only four days ago.

The two sides have already met twice in this short run, each game ending 0-0. Those goalless draws suggest a tight defensive battle when they meet, but both teams have shown they can score multiple goals in other matches. Guatemala’s big win over El Salvador and Suriname’s victories over Martinique and Honduras indicate they are capable of breaking the dead-lock. Expect a low-scoring affair, but with both sides having a good chance of finding the net – Guatemala 76 % and Suriname 70 % – a single goal could decide the game.

We back Guatemala or a draw at 1.34. The price is shorter than we feel the game warrants, so the double-chance gives us a wider safety net. Guatemala are the stronger side on the goal-expectancy numbers and have a slightly higher chance to score, yet Suriname have the momentum of an unbeaten run. If the match stays tight and ends 0-0, our pick still wins. It would only fail if Suriname win by two or more goals, something we think is unlikely given the recent 0-0 result and the short recovery time for both teams.

Recent meetings