How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Nigeria to win 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Guinea-Bissau host Nigeria in an AFCON qualifier at the end of September. In the group table Guinea-Bissau sit near the bottom, while Nigeria sit comfortably in the top half, chasing the automatic qualification spots. A win for the hosts would keep their slim hopes alive, but a loss would see them slip further away from safety. For Nigeria the game is a chance to cement their position and stay clear of any surprise challengers. The two sides differ sharply in the numbers we have – Nigeria are expected to score about three times as many goals as Guinea-Bissau.
Guinea-Bissau have not built much momentum lately. Their most recent fixtures have been a 0-2 loss to Mali and a 1-3 defeat at the hands of Ghana. Before that they drew 2-2 with Sierra Leone and suffered a 0-1 loss to Cameroon. In total they have scored just three goals while conceding eight in their last four matches. The run shows a side that struggles to find the net and is vulnerable at the back.
Nigeria come into the match on a much stronger run. They beat Benin 3-0, then thrashed Tanzania 4-1, and followed that with a 2-0 win over Sudan. Their latest outing was a convincing 3-0 victory over Congo, where they dominated possession and created many chances before sealing the win with a late penalty. Across those four games Nigeria have scored twelve goals and kept a clean sheet three times, underlining a solid defence and a potent attack.
The two teams have met before in the qualifiers, and the previous meetings have favoured Nigeria. Those games have typically produced several goals, with Nigeria often scoring twice or more while Guinea-Bissau have struggled to get on the scoresheet. Given the recent form and the historical pattern, we expect a similar story this time – Nigeria likely to control the game and find the net multiple times, while Guinea-Bissau will find it hard to break through.
Our pick is Nigeria to win. The price of 1.51 is longer than we feel the game deserves, making it a tempting offer. We see Nigeria as the clear favourite, with a roughly 73 % chance of victory based on the goal expectations of 0.7 for Guinea-Bissau and 2.0 for Nigeria. For the pick to go wrong, Guinea-Bissau would need to score early and keep a clean sheet, or Nigeria would have to miss several clear chances. Both scenarios look unlikely, so we think backing Nigeria outright is the straightforward way to go.
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