Guinea v Eritrea prediction

What to expect

Guinea host Eritrea in an AFCON qualifier at home on 12 November. In the group Guinea sit second out of four with three points from two games and a neutral goal difference. They sit just behind South Africa, who are three points clear, and a point ahead of Kenya. Eritrea are bottom of the table with one point, a -5 goal difference, and Kenya level on points just above them. Both sides need points, but Guinea are fighting for a spot in the euro places while Eritrea are trying to climb out of last place.

Guinea have been inconsistent in their last two outings. They drew 1-1 with an unnamed opponent and then lost 3-0 to Celtic. Those results leave them with three points and no goal cushion. The three-goal defeat shows they can be vulnerable at the back, while the draw proves they can still find a goal. Overall they have scored one and conceded four in the last two games.

Eritrea’s recent form is poorer. They suffered a 4-1 loss to Kilmarnock and a 3-0 defeat to Celtic. The 4-1 result gave them a single point and a heavy blow to their goal difference. In the most recent match they could only manage one goal while conceding four, a clear sign they struggle both to score and to keep clean sheets.

When the two have met before there is no record in the data we have, so we cannot draw on a head-to-head history. The numbers we do have suggest an open game with chances at both ends. Guinea are expected to score about 2.3 goals on average while Eritrea average just under one. The chance of Guinea scoring at all is very high, 90 per cent, and the chance they score twice or more is 67 per cent. Eritrea’s chance to find the net sits at 53 per cent, with only an 18 per cent chance of a double.

We pick Guinea to win. The price of 1.17 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, but the odds still give a decent return for a side that is statistically stronger. Our own view gives Guinea a 73 per cent chance of coming out on top. For this to go wrong, Eritrea would need to score early and keep a clean sheet, something they have done rarely this campaign. If Guinea fail to break down Eritrea’s defence, the upset could happen, but the balance of probability still favors the home side.