What to expect
Italy host Belgium on 25 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League. Both teams come into the game with a very similar scoring outlook. Italy are expected to find the net about 1.4 times, while Belgium average a little higher at 1.5 goals. In plain terms, each side is likely to score at least once – the chance of Italy scoring is 77 out of 100 and the same figure applies to Belgium. The odds of either side scoring twice or more sit at 42 out of 100. If we add the two expectations together we get roughly 2.9 goals for the whole match. The numbers suggest a balanced encounter with both teams able to break the dead-lock, but not a flood of goals.
Our pick for the game is Belgium or a draw. This choice reflects the tight nature of the numbers. Both sides have an equal 77 % chance of scoring, and the chance of a high-scoring affair is only 42 % for each. That makes a narrow win for either team or a stalemate the most likely outcomes. By backing Belgium or the draw we cover the two most probable results while still keeping the bet simple. The price offered is 1.62, which sits close to our own reading of the match. It feels like a sensible price for a bet that does not demand the exact scoreline.
We think the bet has a good chance of succeeding – we estimate a 64 % chance of it landing. For the pick to go wrong, the game would have to produce a clear win for Italy, or a high-scoring result where Belgium scores at least two goals and Italy also scores twice. Those scenarios are less likely given the 42 % chance of either side finding the net twice. In short, the price looks good and the safety net of the draw makes this a prudent way to back the lean without needing a precise result.
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