Ivory Coast v Gambia prediction

What to expect

Ivory Coast host Gambia in an AFCON qualifier at home on 12 November. Both teams sit on six points after two games, Ivory Coast first in a four-team group with a +4 goal difference and Gambia second with +3. The top two spots are the Euro places, so the match decides who will stay ahead. The numbers show Ivory Coast as the stronger side, averaging 2.3 goals per game against Gambia’s 0.8. Both sides have chances to score, but Ivory Coast are far more likely to find the net.

Ivory Coast have played three games in their recent run, two wins and a loss. Their most recent result was a 1-0 defeat away to Cameroon. Before that they beat Somalia 2-0 away and Ghana 2-0 at home. In those three matches they have scored four goals and let in only one. They kept two clean sheets and were shut out once. No game in this stretch has produced three or more goals, and neither side has conceded while scoring in the same match.

Gambia’s last three fixtures also give a clear picture. They have two wins and one loss, the loss coming 1-0 to Cameroon away. Their two victories were 2-0 over Somalia away and 2-0 over Ghana at home. Across those three games Gambia have scored four goals and kept two clean sheets, while conceding just one. Their most recent win, the 2-0 triumph over Ghana, showed they can hold a clean sheet and finish a game with two goals.

When the two teams have met before there is no record in the data we have, so we cannot point to a head-to-head pattern. Given the goal expectations – 2.3 for Ivory Coast and 0.8 for Gambia – the game looks open but tilted toward the hosts. Ivory Coast are likely to score at least once in 91 % of matches and twice or more in 69 % of matches. Gambia will score at all in about half of their games and twice in only 15 % of them.

We pick Ivory Coast to win. The price of 1.22 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Ivory Coast a 77 % chance to come out on top. The numbers favour them strongly and their recent form backs that. For the pick to go wrong, Gambia would need to score first and then hold on, something that has happened in only a small fraction of their games. Otherwise the odds look good for a home win.