Kenya v South Africa prediction

What to expect

We expect about 0.8 goals from Kenya and 1.4 from South Africa, so South Africa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

South Africa come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: South Africa or Draw. This covers South Africa or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.18, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.