Lithuania v Suriname prediction

What to expect

Lithuania host Suriname in an international friendly on 12 November 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their recent results, each with two wins, one draw and one loss in their last four games. The match does not affect qualification, but it offers a chance to see how the squads perform when coaches rotate players. On paper Suriname look the stronger side, with a higher expected goal tally, but the game is likely to be tight and low-scoring.

Lithuania come into this fixture having played four games in a row. Their most recent result was a 1-0 defeat away to Azerbaijan. Before that they beat Andorra 3-0 at home, drew 1-1 with Azerbaijan on home soil and earlier in the run beat Liechtenstein 2-0 away. In those four matches Lithuania have scored six goals and let in only two. They kept two clean sheets, failed to find the net once and were involved in just one game with three or more goals, a match where both sides scored.

Suriname’s last four outings show a similar pattern of two wins, one draw and one loss. The most recent result was a 1-0 loss away to Guatemala. Prior to that they held Guatemala to a goalless draw at home, then beat Martinique 2-1 on their own turf and travelled to beat Honduras 3-2. Across those four games Suriname have scored five and conceded four. They kept a single clean sheet, failed to score in two matches and were part of two games with three or more goals, both of which saw both teams on the scoresheet.

When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest a modest number of goals. Lithuania have a 53 % chance of scoring at all and only a 17 % chance of finding the net twice or more. Suriname are more likely to hit the target, with a 75 % chance of scoring and a 39 % chance of getting two or more goals. The combined expectation is just over two goals in the game, pointing to a close contest where either side could break the deadlock.

Our pick is Suriname or a draw. The price of 1.41 is longer than what we think the game will produce, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. We see an 81 % chance that this selection will be right. For it to go wrong, Lithuania would need to win outright, which would require them to score at least once while keeping Suriname off the board – a scenario that the statistics make less likely. We feel the price is attractive for the risk involved, and the odds of a Suriname win or a stalemate are high enough to make this a sensible choice.