Malawi v Egypt prediction

What to expect

We expect about 0.6 goals from Malawi and 1.6 from Egypt, so Egypt come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Egypt to win. Egypt shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.6), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.