Malawi v South Sudan: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Malawi to win 59%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Malawi host South Sudan in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their positions in the group, but the table tells a clear story. Malawi sit higher than the visitors and, according to the numbers we have, they are the stronger side. They are expected to score about 1.4 goals on average, while South Sudan average only 0.7. That gap means the game is likely to be tight and low-scoring. A win for Malawi would push them further up the standings and keep them in contention for the next round, while South Sudan will need at least a point to stay in the hunt. The stakes are therefore real for both, but the statistical edge sits firmly with the home side.

Our pick is straightforward: Malawi to win. The price of 1.67 matches our own reading of the match. We see Malawi’s chance of scoring at least once at 80 percent and their chance of scoring twice or more at 43 percent. South Sudan, by contrast, only have a 45 percent chance of finding the net at all and just a 12 percent chance of scoring two goals. When you combine those probabilities, we estimate Malawi have about a 59 percent chance of coming out on top. That lines up with the price and makes the selection look clean. The game is expected to produce just over two goals in total, so a single-goal win for Malawi fits the likely pattern. For the pick to go wrong, South Sudan would need to break their low scoring trend and either score twice or keep a clean sheet while limiting Malawi to a single goal. If the visitors manage to surprise with a goal and then hold on, the upset would happen, but the odds of that are low. In our view, backing Malawi to win offers the best balance of risk and reward, and the price on offer reflects that balance nicely.