What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Mali and 0.7 from Cape Verde, so Mali come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Mali or Draw. This covers Mali or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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