Mali v Cape Verde: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Mali or Draw 85%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Mali host Cape Verde in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are still chasing points to stay in the race for the final tournament. Mali sit higher in the table than Cape Verde, so the home side will be looking to keep the gap wide. The stakes are simple: a win puts Mali in a strong position to qualify, while a draw would still keep them ahead of the island nation. Cape Verde need at least a point to stay within touching distance of the spots above them. The numbers show Mali as the clear favourite, but the price of 1.24 suggests the game could be tighter than the stats alone imply.

Mali’s recent form has been mixed. They beat an opponent 2-0, then drew 1-1 away, and most recently suffered a 3-0 loss to Celtic. Before that they fell 4-1 to Kilmarnock. In total they have scored seven goals and let in six in their last five matches. The run shows they can find the net but have also been vulnerable at the back, especially in the last two defeats.

Cape Verde have been less consistent. Their last five results include a 2-2 draw, a 1-0 win, a 3-1 loss, a 0-0 stalemate and a 2-3 defeat. They have scored eight goals while conceding seven over those games. The most recent match, a 2-3 loss, saw them score twice but also concede three, highlighting a tendency to be involved in open games but struggle to keep clean sheets. Their ability to find the net remains there, yet they have not been able to shut opponents out.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs. The statistical outlook for this encounter points to a tight match with few goals. Mali’s chance of scoring at all sits at 77 %, while Cape Verde’s is just under 50 %. The likelihood of either side scoring more than once is low – 40 % for Mali and 14 % for Cape Verde. This suggests a game where one goal could be enough, and a single strike from Mali might decide the outcome.

We back Mali or a draw. The price of 1.24 is longer than what we feel the game deserves, so this selection gives us a safety net. If Mali win, we are covered. If the match ends level, the pick still pays. The price looks good for the risk we take. For this to go wrong, Mali would have to be shut out completely and Cape Verde would need to score, or the game would have to finish with a clear win for the visitors. Both scenarios look unlikely given the numbers, so we feel comfortable with our choice.