Moldova v Faroe Islands: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Faroe Islands or Draw 71%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Moldova host the Faroe Islands in a UEFA Nations League clash on 29 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their group, each hoping to pull ahead of the rivals above them and avoid the drop-zone below. The stakes are simple: three points could move a side up a place, while a loss might see them slide down. On paper the Faroe Islands look the stronger side, but Moldova will have the comfort of home and the chance to surprise.

The numbers give us a clear picture of what to expect. Moldova are expected to score one goal on average, while the Faroe Islands are a touch higher at 1.2. The chance that Moldova find the net at all sits at 65 percent, and they have a 26 percent chance of scoring twice or more. The Faroe Islands have a 71 percent chance of scoring and a 32 percent chance of hitting the net twice. Altogether the game is likely to produce about 2.2 goals.

Our pick is the Faroe Islands or a draw. The price on offer is 1.43, which sits close to our own reading of the game. Backing this option gives us a safety net – if the Faroe Islands win outright we collect, and if the match ends level we also win. It is a sensible way to back the slight favourite without needing to predict the exact scoreline.

For this pick to go wrong the Faroe Islands would have to lose. That would require them to be shut out while Moldova manages to score, something that would need a very low scoring game from the Faroes and a better than expected finish from Moldova. If the Faroe Islands fail to find the net at all, the price would not pay out. Otherwise, with a 71 percent chance of the Faroe Islands scoring and the price matching our view, the selection looks solid.