Mozambique v Ethiopia prediction

What to expect

Mozambique host Ethiopia in an AFCON qualifier on 13 November 2026. Mozambique sit top of the four-team group with four points from two games and a +3 goal difference. That position puts them in the automatic qualification places. Ethiopia sit bottom, with no points and a –2 goal difference, three points behind Sudan who hold the second spot. A win for Mozambique would keep them alone at the top, while Ethiopia would need a miracle to climb out of last place.

Mozambique come into this match on a strong run. Their last three fixtures have been a 2-0 win away at Botswana, a 4-1 victory at home over Sudan and a 1-1 draw at home with Senegal. In those three games they have scored seven goals and let in only two. They have kept one clean sheet and have been involved in three-goal games twice, with both sides finding the net in two of those matches. The two straight wins give them confidence and momentum.

Ethiopia have struggled to find points in the group. Their two matches have both ended in defeat, leaving them on zero points. Their goal difference is negative, having let in more than they have scored. The most recent result was a loss, and the team could not find the net, showing a lack of fire in front of goal. Their chances of scoring at all this game sit at 58 per cent, and the chance of scoring twice is only 21 per cent.

When these two sides have met before, the games have produced goals on both ends. The pattern suggests an open encounter rather than a defensive stalemate. Given Mozambique’s higher expected goal tally of 1.6 compared with Ethiopia’s 1.0, the match is likely to see more action from the hosts. The numbers also show Mozambique have an 82 per cent chance of scoring, while Ethiopia have a 58 per cent chance, reinforcing the idea that the home side will dominate the play.

We pick Mozambique to win. The price of 1.58 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the odds still give a decent return for a side that looks stronger on the numbers and comes in on two wins. Our chance of this result happening is about 56 per cent. For the pick to go wrong, Ethiopia would need to score first and then hold on, or Mozambique would have to fail to find the net despite their high scoring probability. Otherwise, the home side should take all three points.