Mozambique v Sudan: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Mozambique or Draw 81%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Mozambique host Sudan in an AFCON qualifier at the end of September. Both teams sit in the middle of their groups, each looking to pull away from the pack. A win for Mozambique would push them a few points clear of the chasing pack, while Sudan needs the three points to stay in the hunt for a top-two finish. On paper Mozambique are the stronger side, with a higher expected goal tally and a better chance of finding the net. The stakes are clear: three points could be the difference between a comfortable run-in to the finals or a scramble in the final round.

Mozambique have been busy of late. They beat Tanzania 2-1, then edged out Malawi 1-0, before drawing 0-0 with Zambia. Those three games give them one win, one draw and one loss, with three goals scored and two conceded. The run shows they can win at home but also that they are capable of keeping a clean sheet. The recent win and the narrow loss suggest they are still finding a rhythm, but the home advantage should help them keep the pressure on Sudan.

Sudan’s recent form has been mixed. They started with a 3-0 loss to Celtic, followed by a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock, then managed a 2-2 draw against Ethiopia. The three results leave them winless in the last three, with six goals against and two scored. The most recent 2-2 draw gave them a glimpse of attacking spark, as they managed to find the net twice and earn a point. That draw shows they can score, but they also still leak goals at the back.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be tight affairs with few goals. The pattern fits the current expectations: Mozambique’s chance of scoring at all sits at 76 %, while Sudan’s is 56 %. Both teams have low probabilities of scoring twice or more – 38 % for Mozambique and 18 % for Sudan. The numbers point to a low-scoring, close contest, likely decided by a single goal or a late equaliser.

We back Mozambique or the draw. The price of 1.22 matches our reading of a tight game where Mozambique are a touch stronger but not guaranteed to win outright. This pick gives us safety if the match ends level, while still rewarding us if Mozambique take the three points. It looks like a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result. For it to go wrong, Sudan would need to keep a clean sheet and score, or Mozambique would have to fail to find the net at all – both are unlikely given the chances we have calculated.