What to expect
Nigeria host Madagascar in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to add points as the campaign moves forward, but the numbers show a clear gap. Nigeria are expected to score almost three goals on average, while Madagascar average just under one. The odds of both sides finding the net are high, suggesting an open game with chances at both ends. The price of 1.27 for a Nigerian win sits close to our own reading of the match.
Nigeria have been busy lately. They beat their last opponent 3-1, then followed that with a 2-0 victory, and most recently they won 4-2. Those three games give them a run of nine goals scored and only three conceded. The run shows they can find the net regularly and keep a clean sheet when needed. Their recent form adds confidence to the expectation that they will continue to score freely.
Madagascar’s recent results have been mixed. They lost 1-0 in their previous game, then drew 2-2, and most recently they were beaten 3-0. The 3-0 defeat was a harsh reminder of the defensive work they still need to do. Still, they managed to score twice in the draw, showing they can find the net on occasion. The latest loss will be a motivator for them to tighten up at the back and try to get at least a goal.
When the two sides meet, the numbers point to a game where Nigeria dominate the scoring. The chance Nigeria will score at all is 95 out of 100, and the chance they will score twice or more is 79 out of 100. Madagascar’s chance to score at all is 54 out of 100, with only an 18 percent chance of scoring twice. This suggests a match with several Nigerian chances and a few chances for Madagascar.
We pick Nigeria to win. The price of 1.27 looks good and matches our view that Nigeria are the stronger side, with an expected 2.8 goals to Madagascar’s 0.9. Our chance of this pick being right is 81 out of 100. For it to go wrong, Madagascar would need to find a way to score early and hold a clean sheet, which the statistics say is unlikely. All things considered, backing Nigeria looks the cleaner play.
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