How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Nigeria to win 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Nigeria host Madagascar in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to add points, but the table picture is clear: Nigeria sit higher, while Madagascar trail. The game is a chance for the Super Eagles to cement their position and for the Barea to try to climb. On the numbers Nigeria are the stronger side, with an expected 2.8 goals compared with Madagascar’s 0.9. That suggests an open match with chances at both ends, and a win for Nigeria would keep them firmly in the hunt for the top spots.
We back Nigeria to win. The price of 1.20 matches our view of the game. Nigeria are expected to score in 95 % of their games and to find the net twice or more in 79 % of them. Madagascar, on the other hand, are only likely to score in just over half of their matches and to hit a double in less than one-fifth. Our chance of picking the right result sits at 81 %. For the price to look wrong, Nigeria would have to be shut out completely and Madagascar would need to score at least twice – a scenario that looks unlikely given the goal expectations. All things considered, backing the home side to come out on top is the cleaner play.
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