What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Puerto Rico and 0.7 from Dominica, so Puerto Rico come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Puerto Rico come into this on three straight wins. Dominica come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Puerto Rico to win. Puerto Rico are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.7), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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