How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Russia or Draw 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Russia and 1.1 from Iran, so Russia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Russia or Draw. This covers Russia or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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