How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Rwanda or Draw 85%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Rwanda host Liberia in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to climb the table, but the exact positions are not known. What matters is that the numbers show Rwanda as the stronger side. They are expected to score more often and to find the net more than once. Liberia will have a harder time scoring at all. The game is set to be tight and low-scoring, with only two goals expected between the two sides.
Rwanda’s chances of scoring in this match are high. They have a 75 % chance of getting at least one goal and a 38 % chance of scoring twice or more. Liberia’s odds are lower, with a 46 % chance of finding the net and only a 12 % chance of scoring two goals. This suggests that Rwanda will dominate the chances, but both teams are likely to keep the scoreline modest.
When the two sides meet, the expectation is a cautious affair. The numbers point to a game where a single goal could decide the outcome, or the teams could share the points with a draw. There is little chance of a goal-fest; the focus will be on defence and making the most of limited chances.
Our pick is Rwanda or Draw. The price of 1.18 matches our view of the match. It gives us a safety net by covering a draw while still backing Rwanda as the favourite. We think the price looks good and we have an 85 % chance of being right. The pick would go wrong only if Liberia manages to score twice or if the game ends with a clear win for Liberia, both of which are unlikely according to the figures.
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