Saint Martin v Bahamas prediction

What to expect

Saint Martin host the Bahamas in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 6 October 2026. In the group Saint Martin sit second of three with six points and a plus-eleven goal difference. One place above them the U.S. Virgin Islands sit three points ahead, while the Bahamas are bottom, three points behind Saint Martin and with a minus-eleven goal difference. Both teams have three games played, so a win for Saint Martin would move them clear of the Bahamas and keep them in the race for the euro places. The price for a Saint Martin win is 1.01, which is shorter than we think the game will be.

Saint Martin come into this game on a mixed three-match run that includes two wins and one loss. Their most recent result was a 5-0 away victory over the U.S. Virgin Islands. Before that they fell 2-0 at home to the same opponents. Their first win of the run was an 8-0 away thrashing of the Bahamas. In those three games they have scored 13 goals and let in only two. They kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net in one match. Two of the three fixtures featured three or more goals, and in both of those games only Saint Martin scored.

The Bahamas arrive on the back of three straight defeats. Their latest outing was a 3-2 loss at home to the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by a 3-1 away defeat to the same side, and before that an 8-0 home loss to Saint Martin. Across those three matches they have scored three goals while conceding fourteen. They failed to score in one of the games. All three fixtures produced three or more goals, and in two of them both teams found the net. The Bahamas played just two days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround for this encounter.

When the two sides have met before, Saint Martin have been dominant, most recently beating the Bahamas 8-0 away. The pattern suggests an open game with chances at both ends, but the numbers point to Saint Martin as the clear favourite. Saint Martin are expected to score in almost every match and to find the net twice or more in the vast majority of games. The Bahamas, on the other hand, score in just over half of their matches and rarely hit the net twice.

Our pick is a Saint Martin win. The price of 1.01 is very short, but we think the chance of Saint Martin coming out on top is about ninety-three per cent. The pick looks solid because Saint Martin have a strong attack, a solid defence and a huge goal difference advantage, while the Bahamas are struggling to score and have just three goals in their last three games. It would only go wrong if the Bahamas manage to find a rare burst of form and keep a clean sheet, or if Saint Martin somehow fail to hit the target despite the high scoring expectations. In most other scenarios Saint Martin should take all three points.

Recent meetings