Saint Vincent and the Grenadines v Sint Maarten prediction

What to expect

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines host Sint Maarten at home in the CONCACAF Nations League on 6 October 2026. The Caribbean side sit first of four in their group with nine points from three games and a +4 goal difference. French Guiana sit just one place below them, three points back. Sint Maarten are fourth, with no points and a –4 goal difference, and sit in the relegation places. Belize sit above Sint Maarten, three points clear. The match could decide who stays up and who drops down, so both teams have a lot to play for.

Saint Vincent have won their last three matches, all without a draw or loss. Most recently they beat Sint Maarten 4-2 away, before a 1-0 win away at Belize and a 2-1 victory at home over French Guiana. In those three games they have scored seven goals and let in three, keeping one clean sheet. Two of the three fixtures produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in both of those games. The side only played three days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround but with confidence from three straight wins.

Sint Maarten have not won any of their last three outings. Their most recent game was a 4-2 loss at home to Saint Vincent, followed by a 1-0 defeat away to French Guiana and a 1-0 loss at home to Belize. They have scored only two goals while conceding six in this run and failed to find the net in two of the three matches. Only one of those games saw three or more goals, and both teams scored in that one. Like their opponents, they also played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The two sides have already met this campaign when Saint Vincent travelled to Sint Maarten and won 4-2. That game produced six goals and showed that both teams can create chances, but the home side proved the stronger side. With Saint Vincent’s recent form and the goal numbers suggesting an open game, we expect another match with chances at both ends, though the balance should still favour the hosts.

We pick Saint Vincent and the Grenadines to win. The numbers put them at about 2.8 goals per game compared with 1.6 for Sint Maarten, and we see a 64 per cent chance of a victory. The price of 1.56 matches our view of the game. For this pick to go wrong, Sint Maarten would need to improve sharply, keep a clean sheet and score at least twice while limiting Saint Vincent to a single goal. That would be a big shift from their recent three-game losing streak.

Recent meetings