How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Albania to win 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.4 goals from San Marino and 2.2 from Albania, so Albania come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Albania to win. Albania shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.4-2.2), and we make them about 85% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.06, which works out at about 94 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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