Senegal v Sudan prediction

What to expect

Senegal host Sudan in an AFCON qualifier on 12 November 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of a four-team group. Senegal are second with four points and a +1 goal difference, just one point ahead of Sudan who sit third with three points and a –2 goal difference. Mozambique sit one place above Senegal, level on points, while Ethiopia are below Sudan. A win for Senegal would move them into the group’s euro-qualification places, and a loss would see them drop to third. The numbers show Senegal as the clear favourite, with an expected 2.5 goals compared with Sudan’s 0.4.

Senegal have not lost in their last three matches. They began the run by beating Comoros 1-0 at home, then travelled to beat Ethiopia 1-0, and most recently drew 1-1 away to Mozambique. Those three games produced four goals in total, with Senegal scoring three and conceding only one. The side kept two clean sheets in the run and have not been involved in any game with three or more goals. The two straight wins give them confidence heading into this fixture.

Sudan’s recent form is less encouraging. In their last three outings they have not found the net often and have been on the wrong end of the scoreline. Their most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw, a result that offered a rare goal for them but also showed how hard it is for them to score. Overall they have managed just one goal in those three games while conceding several. The low scoring trend matches the broader picture that Sudan are expected to score only 0.4 goals in this game.

When the two sides meet, the pattern points to a low-scoring affair. Senegal have scored only once in each of their last two wins and have kept clean sheets, while Sudan have struggled to find the net. The statistics say there is a 92 % chance Senegal will score at all and a 73 % chance they will score twice or more. Sudan’s chances of scoring are only 27 % and just 4 % of scoring twice. This suggests a game where Senegal dominate possession and create the few chances that matter, and Sudan find it difficult to threaten.

Our pick is Senegal to win. The price is 1.10, which is shorter than our own reading of the game, but the odds still offer a decent return for a side that looks set to take all three points. We see an 88 % chance of this result happening. For the pick to go wrong, Senegal would have to fail to score, which the numbers say is unlikely, or Sudan would need to pull off a surprise goal and hold on. Given the form, the goal expectations and the standings, backing Senegal looks the cleaner play.