How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Slovenia to win 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Slovenia and 0.7 from North Macedonia, so Slovenia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Slovenia to win. Slovenia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.7), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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