How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Ivory Coast to win 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.5 goals from Somalia and 2.1 from Ivory Coast, so Ivory Coast come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ivory Coast to win. Ivory Coast shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.5-2.2), and we make them about 80% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.04, which works out at about 96 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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