What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from South Africa and 0.6 from Kenya, so South Africa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
South Africa come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: South Africa to win. South Africa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.6), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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