South Sudan v Egypt: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Egypt to win 80%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

South Sudan host Egypt in an AFCON qualifying match on 29 September 2026. Both teams are in the same group, but the table shows Egypt clearly ahead, while South Sudan sit near the bottom. A win for Egypt would push them further toward the top spots and keep their qualification hopes strong. For South Sudan, a victory would be a rare boost, but they need more than a single point to move up. The numbers we have show Egypt as the stronger side, with an expected 2.2 goals compared with just 0.5 for South Sudan.

We back Egypt to win. The price of 1.19 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so it looks attractive. Egypt are expected to score in most games and to find the net twice or more in two-thirds of their matches. South Sudan are far less likely to score at all, and even less likely to hit a double. If Egypt score first and keep the pressure, the result should follow. The pick would go wrong only if South Sudan manage to score early and hold on, or if Egypt struggle to find the net despite their high scoring chances. Otherwise, we see an 80 % chance of Egypt taking all three points.