Sudan v Ethiopia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sudan or Draw 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Sudan host Ethiopia in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are in the middle of the table, each fighting for the few points that could move them up the standings. Sudan sit a place higher than Ethiopia, and the numbers we have suggest Sudan are the stronger side. A win for Sudan would push them a step closer to the top half, while a draw would keep them level with Ethiopia, who need at least a point to stay clear of the relegation zone. The stakes are clear: three points for Sudan, one for Ethiopia, and a chance to climb.

Sudan’s recent form has been mixed. They beat Tanzania 2-1, then drew 0-0 with Zambia, and followed that with a 1-1 stalemate against Ghana. In their last three games they have scored three goals and conceded two. The run shows they can find the net but also that they are capable of holding opponents at bay. Their defence has been solid, keeping a clean sheet in one of the three matches, while their attack has been modest, averaging just one goal per game.

Ethiopia have been less consistent. They lost 3-0 to Congo, then suffered a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kenya, and most recently managed a 2-2 draw with Burundi. The 2-2 result was a fightback after going behind, with Ethiopia equalising in the second half before both sides shared the points. Across those three fixtures Ethiopia have scored three goals and let in seven. The recent draw shows they can still score, but the heavy defeats highlight defensive frailties.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be tight affairs with few goals. The pattern fits the current expectations of a low-scoring encounter. Sudan have a 70 % chance of scoring at least once, while Ethiopia have a 59 % chance. Both teams are more likely to score only once than to find the net twice. This suggests a match that could be decided by a single goal or end level, rather than a goal-fest.

We back Sudan or a draw. The price of 1.21 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so it gives us a little extra safety. Our chance that this selection will be right sits at 75 %. For it to go wrong, Sudan would need to lose, which would require them to be shut out and Ethiopia to score at least once. If the game stays tight and Sudan manage a goal or keep a clean sheet, our pick should hold.