What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Sudan and 2.0 from Senegal, so Senegal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Senegal come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Senegal to win. Senegal shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.0), and we make them about 78% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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