What to expect
Tanzania host Guinea-Bissau in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to pick up points and stay in contention for the next round. The game is being played in Tanzania, so the home side will have the crowd behind them. With the two sides level on points in the group, a win or even a draw could make a big difference in the final table. Our numbers show Tanzania as the stronger side, but the match is expected to be tight and low-scoring.
Tanzania have been busy in their last few fixtures. They beat an opponent 2-0, then drew 1-1 against another side, and most recently lost 3-0 to Celtic. Those results give them three goals scored and four conceded in the last three games. The three-goal loss shows they can be vulnerable at the back, while the win and draw prove they can still find the net.
Guinea-Bissau’s recent form is a mixed bag. They began with a 2-2 draw, followed by a 4-1 win over Kilmarnock, and then suffered a 3-0 defeat to Celtic. In total they have scored seven goals and let in six in those three matches. The 4-1 victory shows they have the ability to score several goals, but the heavy loss to Celtic reminds us they can also be shut out.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been close affairs with few goals. Our expectation of 1.8 goals in this encounter fits that pattern. The chances of either team scoring are modest – Tanzania have a 73 % chance to find the net, while Guinea-Bissau only have a 45 % chance. The odds of either side scoring twice are low, 34 % for Tanzania and 11 % for Guinea-Bissau. All of this points to a game where one goal could be enough.
We back Tanzania or a draw. The price of 1.24 is longer than our own reading of the game, but it gives us safety if the match ends level. Our chance of this pick working is 86 %. For it to go wrong, Tanzania would have to lose, which would require them to be shut out and Guinea-Bissau to score at least once. If the game stays tight and low-scoring, our selection should hold.
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