How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Tanzania or Draw 86%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Tanzania and 0.7 from Guinea-Bissau, so Tanzania come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Tanzania or Draw. This covers Tanzania or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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