Zambia v Burundi prediction

What to expect

Zambia host Burundi in an AFCON qualifier at home on 13 November. In the four-team group Zambia sit second with three points from two games and a neutral goal difference. One point separates them from leaders Algeria and they sit just above Togo, who have the same points. Burundi are bottom, also on one point but with a –1 goal difference, two points behind Togo. The match could decide who stays in the race for the top two places, so both sides have something to play for.

Zambia’s recent form has been mixed. They began the campaign with a 0-0 draw against an unnamed opponent, then earned a 2-1 win over another side. Those two results give them three points and keep their goal difference at zero. The win shows they can find the net, while the goalless draw proves they can also keep a clean sheet when needed. Overall they have scored two goals and conceded one in the last two games.

Burundi have struggled to find consistency. Their first game ended in a 1-1 draw, giving them a point and a balanced goal tally. The second fixture was a 3-0 defeat, leaving them with a single point from two matches and a negative goal difference. The loss was heavy, but the earlier draw shows they can at least get on the scoresheet. Their most recent performance was that 3-0 loss, where they failed to score and allowed three goals, highlighting a defensive frailty that Zambia will look to exploit.

When the two teams have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs. The statistics suggest Zambia are the stronger side, with an 82 % chance of scoring at least once and a 50 % chance of scoring twice or more. Burundi have a 65 % chance of finding the net and a 28 % chance of scoring two. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly open game, but the history of tight encounters means we can expect a disciplined, perhaps cautious, approach from both sides.

We back Zambia or a draw. The price of 1.15 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, so we take the safety of a draw to cover any slip-up from the hosts. Zambia’s higher scoring chances and better position in the table give them the edge, but a single goal from Burundi would be enough to spoil a clean sheet. If Zambia fail to score at all, or if Burundi manage two goals, our pick would be wrong. Otherwise, the odds look good for a Zambia-led result or at least a shared point.