How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Zambia or Draw 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Zambia host Togo in an AFCON qualifier on 29 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their position in the group, but the exact table spots are not known to us. What we do know is that the numbers show Zambia as the stronger side. They have a 76 % chance of finding the net at least once and a 40 % chance of scoring twice or more. Togo are not far behind, with a 69 % chance to score and a 32 % chance to hit a double. The expected total goals are 2.6, split into 1.4 for Zambia and 1.2 for Togo. In plain terms, we can expect a game with a couple of goals, and Zambia are slightly more likely to get the better of it.
Our pick is Zambia or a draw. The price on offer is 1.24, which is shorter than what we think the game is worth. That means the price does not fully reflect the advantage we see in Zambia’s numbers, but it does give us a safety net if the match ends level. We feel comfortable with this choice because the chance of it working out is about 70 %. For the pick to go wrong, Zambia would have to fail to score at all or Togo would need to win by more than a single goal. As long as Zambia manages to get on the scoresheet, the bet stays safe. This approach lets us back the lean without demanding an exact scoreline.
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