Al-Gharraf v Al Naft: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Al Naft or Draw 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Al-Gharraf host Al Naft at home in the Iraq Stars League on 22 October. Al-Gharraf sit 16th out of 20 with nine points from ten games and a –7 goal difference. They are just one place above the relegation zone and only one point clear of Al Karkh below them. Al Naft sit third with twenty-one points and a +8 goal difference, level on points with Newroz above and three points clear of Al Zawraa below. Both clubs have almost identical goal expectations – 0.8 for Al-Gharraf and 0.9 for Al Naft – pointing to a tight, low-scoring encounter. The price of 1.33 matches our view of a close game.

Al-Gharraf have played four matches in their recent run, winning once, drawing once and losing twice. Their most recent win was a 2-1 away success over Karbalaa. Before that they held Al-Jolan SC to a 0-0 draw at home. The two defeats came 2-0 away at Al Zawraa and 3-1 away at Diyala. In those four games they have scored three goals and let in six. They kept one clean sheet, failed to score in two matches and were involved in two games with three or more goals, both of which saw both sides on the scoresheet.

Al Naft arrive on a much stronger run of five games, with four wins and one loss. Their latest victory was a 2-0 home win over Zakho, followed by another 2-0 home win against Diyala. They then travelled to beat Al-Mosul 1-0, and earlier beat Karbalaa 2-1 at home. Their only loss in the stretch was a 3-0 away defeat to Al-Karma. Across these five matches Al Naft have scored seven goals and conceded four. They have kept three clean sheets, failed to score only once and have been involved in two games with three or more goals, both of which featured both teams scoring.

When the two sides have met before the matches have been close affairs, with few goals on either side. The numbers we have suggest a similar pattern this time – a low-scoring, tight contest where both teams have a reasonable chance of finding the net but neither is likely to dominate. Al-Gharraf’s chance of scoring at all is just over half, while Al Naft’s chance is a little higher. Both sides have modest odds of scoring more than once. The game is likely to be decided by a single goal or end level.

We back Al Naft or the draw at 1.33. The price fits our reading of a narrow game where Al Naft have the edge but are not guaranteed to win. Our confidence in this outcome is high – we see a 76 % chance of it working. For the pick to go wrong Al Naft would need to be held scoreless and Al-Gharraf would have to score, or Al Naft would have to lose by more than one goal. Either scenario looks unlikely given the recent form and the low-scoring nature of both teams.