How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Draw 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Al Talaba host Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home in the Iraq Stars League on 22 October. The home side sit 13th out of 20 with 11 points from ten games and a –4 goal difference. One place above them, Ghaz Al-Shamal SC hold the same points, while Al-Mosul sit just below on equal points. Al Quwa Al Jawiya are a little higher in the table, 8th with 12 points and a +2 goal difference. They sit between Al-Jolan SC, two points ahead, and Duhok, level on points just below. Both clubs are close in points, but Al Quwa Al Jawiya have a slightly better goal record and a small edge in the standings.
Al Talaba have been steady in their last five matches, recording two wins, two draws and one loss. Their most recent result was a 1-0 away win over Al Kahrabaa. Before that they held Al Shorta to a goalless draw at home and shared a 2-2 draw with Al-Jolan SC on their own turf. Earlier they fell 2-0 away to Naft Maysan and earlier still beat Al Karkh 3-2 at home. In those five games they have scored six goals and let in six, keeping two clean sheets while failing to find the net in two matches. The last three outings have all been unbeaten, and at home they have one win and two draws in that span. Their most recent match was six days ago.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have had a tougher run in their last six games, with one win, two draws and three defeats. Their latest fixture was a 0-0 draw with Al-Karma at home. Prior to that they suffered a 4-1 loss to Al-Ain on their own ground, but bounced back with a 3-0 away victory over Al-Mosul. They then drew 1-1 with Diyala at home, lost 1-0 away to Neftchi Fargona and were beaten 1-0 at home by Al Zawraa. Across those six outings they have scored five goals and conceded seven, keeping two clean sheets but also going three games without scoring. Their most recent game, five days ago, ended in a goalless stalemate, showing they can hold opponents but still lack firepower.
Our pick is Al Quwa Al Jawiya or a draw, with the price at 1.36. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and gives us a wider safety net. We see a tight contest: Al Talaba have a 63 % chance to score and Al Quwa Al Jawiya a 69 % chance, while both sides are likely to find the net only once. The odds of our pick succeeding are about 71 %. For the bet to go wrong, Al Talaba would need to win outright, which would require them to score twice and keep a clean sheet – something that has only happened twice in their recent five games. If the match stays level or Al Quwa Al Jawiya snatch a narrow win, our selection should hold.
Recent results
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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