How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Erbil or Draw 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Zakho host Erbil at home in the Iraq Stars League on 22 October 2026. Zakho sit 15th out of 20 with nine points after ten games and a goal difference of minus seven. They are three places above the bottom and only two points clear of Al-Mosul, while Al-Gharraf sit just below them on the same points. Erbil sit a much stronger fifth, also on ten games but with eighteen points and a plus eight goal difference. They sit level on points with Al Zawraa above them and one point ahead of Al Shorta below. Both clubs are looking for points, but Zakho need to climb out of the relegation zone while Erbil aim to keep pressure on the teams above them.
Zakho’s recent form has been poor. In their last five matches they have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats. The most recent result was a 2-0 loss away to Al Naft. Before that they fell 1-0 at home to Newroz and 1-0 away to Al-Karma. Their only win came at home against Al-Mosul, a 2-1 victory, and they drew 1-1 away to Al-Jolan SC. In this stretch Zakho have scored three goals and let in six. They have failed to find the net in three of those five games and only one match featured three or more goals, with both sides scoring in two of the games.
Erbil have also been inconsistent. In their last four outings they have one win, one draw and two defeats. Their latest game was a 1-0 loss at home to Al-Mosul. Prior to that they earned a 1-1 draw away at Naft Maysan, then a convincing 3-0 away win over Karbalaa, and a 2-1 home defeat by Al-Karma. Across these four matches Erbil have scored five goals and conceded four. They kept a clean sheet once and were shut out once. Two of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in two of the fixtures. The side played just four days ago, so they arrive on a short turnaround.
When the two clubs have met before the scores have been close, with each side finding the net but neither dominating. Given the similar expected goal figures – 1.1 for each team – we anticipate a tight encounter with few chances. Both teams have shown they can score but also struggle to keep clean sheets. The pattern suggests a low-scoring game where a single goal could decide the outcome, or the match could finish level.
Our pick is Erbil or the draw at a price of 1.33. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and offers a safe way to back the slight edge Erbil have in the table. We see a 72 % chance that either Erbil win or a draw will happen. For the pick to fail, Zakho would need to win outright, which would require them to break their recent scoring drought and keep a clean sheet against a side that has been able to find the net in recent games. If that does not happen, the price looks good for us.
Recent results
Zakho have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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