How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Newroz or Draw 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Newroz and 0.9 from Diyala, so Newroz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Newroz come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Newroz or Draw. This covers Newroz or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Newroz have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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