How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Karkh to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al Karkh and 1.1 from Al Kahrabaa, so Al Karkh come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Karkh to win. Al Karkh are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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