What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al Karkh and 1.1 from Al Kahrabaa, so Al Karkh come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Al Karkh come into this on two straight defeats. Al Kahrabaa come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Karkh to win. Al Karkh are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Al Kahrabaa a draw or better. We make it about 41% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.