What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Al Zawraa and 0.8 from Zakho, so Al Zawraa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Al Zawraa (Draw No Bet). Al Zawraa are favoured here (xG 1.2-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Al Zawraa defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Zakho win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 70% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
