How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Al Zawraa (Draw No Bet) 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Al Zawraa and 0.8 from Zakho, so Al Zawraa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Al Zawraa (Draw No Bet). Al Zawraa are favoured here (xG 1.2-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Al Zawraa defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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