What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Diyala and 0.8 from AL Julan, so Diyala come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Diyala to win. Diyala are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for AL Julan to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 44%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
