What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Al Talaba and 0.7 from Al Naft, so Al Talaba come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Al Talaba to win. Al Talaba are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.7), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Al Naft a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 42%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
