How it turned out
We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Al Talaba to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Al Talaba and 0.7 from Al Naft, so Al Talaba come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Al Talaba to win. Al Talaba are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.7), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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