What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Erbil and 0.9 from Al Minaa, so Erbil come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Erbil to win. Erbil are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Al Minaa only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 55% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
