How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Al Naft or Draw 82%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Naft host Al Kahrabaa at home in the Iraq Stars League on 29 October 2026. Al Naft sit third in a twenty-team table with twenty-two points from eleven games and a plus-eight goal difference. One place above them Newroz are level on points, while Al Shorta sit just below with two points less. Al Kahrabaa are struggling at eighteenth, eight points from the same number of matches and a minus-six goal difference, already inside the relegation zone. One spot above them is Al Karkh with a single point more, and Naft Maysan sit just below with the same points. The clash could move Al Naft closer to the leaders or see Al Kahrabaa try to climb out of danger.
Al Naft have been in good form over their last eight outings, winning five, drawing two and losing once. Their most recent game was a goalless draw away at Al-Gharraf. Before that they beat Zakho 2-0 at home, then Diyala 2-0 at home, and took a 1-0 win away at Al-Mosul. At home they also beat Karbalaa 2-1 and suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Al-Karma. In this run they have scored ten goals and let in four, keeping six clean sheets while failing to find the net in three matches. Their last three home games have all been victories, showing a strong record in front of their own fans.
Al Kahrabaa have not been as fortunate. In their last eight games they have managed one win, three draws and four losses. Their most recent result was a 2-1 defeat away to Al-Jolan SC. Prior to that they lost 1-0 at home to Al Talaba, drew 0-0 with Karbalaa at home, and fell 2-0 away to Al Shorta. They did manage a 2-1 home win over Al Minaa, but then lost 1-0 away to Al Zawraa. Over those eight matches they have scored five and conceded nine, keeping only two clean sheets and going without a goal in five games. Their last four trips have produced no wins, one draw and three defeats, highlighting their difficulties on the road.
When the two sides meet, the games have usually been tight. In the last five meetings Al Naft have won three, drawn two and Al Kahrabaa have not won any. The average scoreline in those encounters is just over two goals per match. The most recent meeting on 17 March 2026 ended 2-1 to Al Naft. Given the current form and the low-scoring nature of their past clashes, we expect another close, low-scoring affair.
We back Al Naft or a draw at a price of 1.23. The numbers suggest Al Naft are the stronger side, with an expected 1.1 goals compared with 0.8 for Al Kahrabaa, and a 69 % chance they will score at all. The price matches our reading of a tight game where a single goal could decide it. The pick should work about eighty-two times out of a hundred. It would go wrong if Al Kahrabaa manage to find the net twice or more, or if Al Naft are shut out completely, both of which are relatively unlikely given the recent trends.
Recent results
Al Naft have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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