How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Al Quwa Al Jawiya host Al Minaa in the Iraq Stars League on 29 October 2026. The home side sit 13th out of 20 with 12 points from 11 games and a +1 goal difference. One place above them, Diyala are just a point clear, while Al-Mosul sit just below on the same points. Al Minaa sit a little higher in the table, 9th with 15 points and a –1 goal difference, level on points with Duhok above them and a point ahead of Ghaz Al-Shamal SC below. Both clubs have won two, drawn two and lost four in their last eight matches, so the clash could move either side up or down the mid-table scramble.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have been inconsistent at home. In their last five home games they have one win, two draws and two defeats. The most recent result was a 1-0 victory over Pakhtakor Tashkent at home, followed by a 0-0 draw with Al-Karma. Before that they fell 4-1 to Al-Ain and drew 1-1 with Diyala, both at their own ground. In the eight-game run that includes away fixtures they have scored six goals and let in eight, keeping three clean sheets but failing to find the net in four matches. Two of those games produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them. The side played just three days ago, so fatigue may be a factor.
Al Minaa have struggled on the road lately. Their last three away outings all ended in defeat, the most recent being a 2-0 loss to Newroz. At home they have shown a bit more bite, beating Al-Karma 2-1 and Ghaz Al-Shamal SC 2-0, and drawing 1-1 with Duhok and Naft Maysan. Over their last eight games they have scored seven and conceded twelve, with only one clean sheet and three matches where they failed to score. Their most recent match was a 2-1 win over Al-Karma at home, a result that gave them a small boost before the trip.
When the two clubs meet, the history favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya. In the last five meetings Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won three times, drawn twice and never lost. Those games have averaged two goals each. The most recent encounter on 2 May 2026 ended 2-0 to the home side. Given the similar recent form but the home side’s slightly better record in head-to-head clashes, we can expect a modestly low-scoring affair, probably around two goals in total.
We pick Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win. The numbers suggest they will score about 1.7 goals on average while Al Minaa manage only 0.8, and the chance of a win for the home side sits around 60 per cent. The price of 1.80 is longer than our own reading, which makes it an attractive offer. For this to go wrong Al Minaa would need to find the net twice, something that has only happened in 14 per cent of their games, and they would also have to keep a clean sheet, a rarity for them. If the visitors manage to score early and hold on, the upset could happen, but the balance still leans clearly toward a home win.
Recent results
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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