Al-Mosul v Al-Jolan SC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Al-Jolan SC or Draw 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Al-Mosul host Al-Jolan SC in the Iraq Stars League on 29 October. Al-Mosul sit 14th out of 20 with 12 points from 11 games and a -5 goal difference. Just above them is Al Quwa Al Jawiya on the same points, while Zakho sit directly below on equal points. Al-Jolan SC are much higher in the table, sitting 7th with 17 points and a +2 goal difference. One place above them is Al Zawraa, a point clear, and two places below is Duhok, two points back. Both clubs have similar chances of scoring – 66 out of 100 – and similar chances of scoring twice or more – 29 out of 100. The match could produce about 2.3 goals in total.

Al-Mosul have struggled in their last eight games, winning only once, drawing twice and losing five. Their most recent results are a 1-1 draw away at Al Karkh, a 1-0 win away at Erbil, a 3-0 loss at home to Al Quwa Al Jawiya, a 1-0 loss at home to Al Naft, a 2-1 defeat away to Zakho and a 3-0 loss away to Newroz. In those eight matches they have scored five goals and let in 14. They kept just one clean sheet and failed to find the net in four games. At home in their last three outings they have not won, managing one draw and two defeats. Their last game was six days ago.

Al-Jolan SC arrive on the back of two straight victories. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn four and lost once. The recent run includes a 2-1 home win over Al Kahrabaa, a 2-0 home win over Duhok, a 0-0 draw away at Al-Gharraf, a 2-2 draw away at Al Talaba, a 2-0 home loss to Newroz and a 1-1 home draw with Zakho. On the road in their last four games they have one win and three draws, unbeaten away. Across those eight games they have scored 11 and conceded 9, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Their last match was also six days ago, a 2-1 win that showed they can finish games strongly.

We back Al-Jolan SC or a draw. The price of 1.53 matches our reading of a tight contest where both sides are likely to score but a win for Al-Jolan is not certain. Our chance that this result happens is 67 out of 100. For Al-Jolan to miss out they would need to be held scoreless at home while Al-Mosul manage at least one goal, which seems unlikely given Al-Mosul’s recent scoring woes. The price looks good for the safety net it offers, and we think the most sensible way to back the lean is to cover the away side and the draw together.