How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Beitar Jerusalem to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Beitar Jerusalem and 1.1 from Hapoel Haifa, so Beitar Jerusalem come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Beitar Jerusalem come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Beitar Jerusalem to win. Beitar Jerusalem are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hapoel Haifa have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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