How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Maccabi Haifa to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Maccabi Haifa and 1.0 from Ironi Tiberias, so Maccabi Haifa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Maccabi Haifa come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Maccabi Haifa to win. Maccabi Haifa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.0), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Maccabi Haifa have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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