Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona prediction

What to expect

We meet at the Be’er Sheva ground for a Ligat ha’Al clash that could shift the bottom of the table. Hapoel Be’er Sheva sit a few spots above the relegation zone, while Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona sit 11th of 14, only three points away from safety after four games. Their goal difference is –5, and they are currently in the relegation places. One place above them, Hapoel Ramat Gan sit just one point clear, while Hapoel Petah Tikva sit directly below, level on points. Both teams have similar expected goal numbers – about 1.3 for Be’er Sheva and 1.5 for Kiryat Shmona – so the match looks evenly balanced on paper, but the stakes are higher for the visitors who must climb out of the drop zone.

Our pick is a win for Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The price on offer is 6.20, which is longer than our own reading of the game, making it an attractive option. We give the result a 36 % chance of happening, roughly a 38 % chance of a win when we look at the numbers. For the pick to go wrong, Be’er Sheva would need to score first and hold on, or Kiryat Shmona would have to miss a clear chance to take the lead. If the visitors can keep the game tight and find a goal, the price looks good and the upset is within reach.