Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah Tikva: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Hapoel Tel Aviv to win 51%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Hapoel Tel Aviv host Hapoel Petah Tikva at home in the Ligat ha’Al on 18 September. The hosts sit third in the 14-team table with seven points from four games and a +4 goal difference. They are just two points behind second-placed Maccabi Haifa and one point ahead of Hapoel Beer Sheva. Petah Tikva are down in tenth place, also on four games but with only three points and a –3 goal difference. Their spot is already in the relegation zone, with Hapoel Jerusalem one point above them and Hapoel Ramat Gan level on points just below. A win for Tel Aviv would pull them closer to the European spots, while a loss would see Petah Tikva slip further toward the drop.

Tel Aviv have been solid in recent weeks. They opened the campaign with a 2-0 win, then followed that with a 3-1 victory, and most recently beat a strong side 2-0. Those three results give them eight goals scored and only one conceded, leaving them with a healthy +4 difference. The run shows they can find the net regularly and keep clean sheets, which is why they sit high in the table.

Petah Tikva’s form has been far less encouraging. They started with a 1-1 draw, then suffered a 0-2 defeat, and their latest game ended in a 1-3 loss. In that most recent match they managed only a single goal while conceding three, leaving them with a total of two goals for and six against in the last three outings. The pattern points to a side that struggles both to score and to keep opponents out.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs, with each side finding the net only occasionally. Given Tel Aviv’s recent defensive solidity and Petah Tikva’s difficulty in scoring, we expect another tight contest, likely decided by a single goal. Tel Aviv’s higher probability of scoring at least once (78 %) and of scoring twice or more (44 %) contrasts with Petah Tikva’s lower chances (56 % to score, 20 % to score twice). The numbers suggest Tel Aviv will have the edge and that the match will not explode into a goal-fest.

We pick Hapoel Tel Aviv to win. The price of 1.38 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Tel Aviv about a 53 % chance of victory. That odds level makes the pick look attractive, especially when the alternative is chasing a bigger price elsewhere. For the pick to go wrong, Petah Tikva would need to find a way to score early and then hold on, or Tel Aviv would have to miss both of their likely scoring chances. As long as Tel Aviv keep their usual defensive shape and find a goal, the win should be the safer outcome.