What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Avispa Fukuoka and 1.2 from Mito, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.2 goals (xG 1.1-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 69% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 69% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
