What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Kashima Antlers and 1.1 from Urawa Reds, so Kashima Antlers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Kashima Antlers to win. Kashima Antlers are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Urawa Reds a draw or better. At around 62% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
