How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kashima Antlers to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Kashima Antlers and 1.3 from Urawa Reds, so Kashima Antlers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Urawa Reds come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kashima Antlers to win. Kashima Antlers are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.3), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Kashima Antlers have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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