How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Okayama and 1.3 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.9 goals in total (xG 0.7-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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