How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Machida to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Nagoya Grampus and 1.7 from Machida, so Machida come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Machida to win. Machida shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.7), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Machida have won four of the last four meetings.
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